全球城市化背景下中国城市化与经济增长分析

Analysis of China’s Urbanization and Economic Growth under the Background of Global Urbanization

目前,日本、韩国的城市化率均达到80%以上,两国的城市化发展经验对于城市化率刚超过50%的中国来说具有重要的参考意义。通过分析日本、韩国的城市化发展过程及相关经验,选取中国1979年至2017年的相关统计数据,对中国城市化率与其经济增长的相互关系进行探究,运用协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验以及脉冲响应分析,结果显示,我国经济增长和城市化之间存在单向的长期稳定的关系,即我国经济增长是城市化发展的动因,但城市化并不是我国经济增长的动因。

At present, the urbanization rates of Japan and Korea are all over 80%. The experience of urbanization development in both countries is of great significance for China, whose urbanization level is just over 50%. By analyzing the urbanization development process and relevant experience of Japan and Korea, and selecting the relevant statistical data of China from 1979 to 2017, this paper explores and analyses the relationship between urbanization rate and economic growth through co-integration test, Granger causality test and impulse response. The result shows that there is a one-way long-term stable relationship between economic growth and urbanization in China;that is to say, economic growth of our country is the motive of urbanization development, but urbanization is not the motive of economic growth.