养老金体系改革对中国经济动态效率的影响

The Impacts of Pension System Reform on Dynamic Efficiency of Chinese Economy

本文构建了一个开放经济条件下包括养老金因素的OLG模型,以考察养老金体系改革对中国经济动态效率的影响。基于1997—2017年省际数据,本文运用SYS-GMM方法研究发现,现收现付制向部分积累制转轨对储蓄生成了显著的“挤入”效应,助长了资本过度积累的物质基础,不利于中国经济动态无效的改善;2005年推行的养老金改革强化了养老金缴费与养老金受益之间的关系,使居民在资产结构方面对养老金缴费率的变化所做出的反应更敏感,放大了对经济动态效率的冲击。此外,本文还发现,当养老金缴费率降低,资本积累水平过高以至于损害经济动态效率时,资本的国际流动有助于缓解这一负效应。在开放条件下,中国实施养老金改革要占优于封闭状态。因此,在我国的政策制定时需要协调养老金体系改革的社会功能和经济功能,实现多重目标的统一;加强养老金体系改革的顶层设计,落实基础养老金全国统筹;逐步放开资本市场,提高经济运行的动态效率。

This paper constructs an OLG model that incorporates pension in an open economy to examine the impact of pension reform on dynamic efficiency in China s economy. Based on the provincial level data from 1997 to 2014, this paper employs the SYS-GMM method to find that the transition from the pay-as-you-go to partially funded system has a significant “crowding-in” effect on savings, which is conducive to over-accumulation of capital and fails to improve the dynamic efficiency of Chinese economy. The reform introduced in 2005 reinforced the relationship between the contributions to and benefits of pension fund, making residents more responsive to changes in pension contribution rates, which amplifies shocks to dynamic efficiency. Declines in contribution rates and high level of capital accumulation tend to be detrimental to dynamic efficiency, while international flow of capital can help to alleviate this negative effect. Therefore, we need to coordinate the social and economic functions of reforms on pension system and strengthen the top-level design of pension system reform. Meanwhile, the capital market should be opened gradually to improve the dynamic efficiency of China s economy.