我国经济增长质量的混频测度与货币政策调控方式转型

Mixed Frequency Measuring on China’s Economic Growth Quality and the Transformation of Monetary Policy Regulations

当前,我国经济已由高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段,货币政策调控方式理应服务于经济高质量发展转变。本文首先基于混频动态因子模型测度我国的经济增长质量指数,进一步运用SV-TVP-FAVAR模型量化分析货币政策的经济增长质量效应。结果表明:我国经济增长质量具有一定阶段波动性,但整体呈现出上升态势,其走势符合我国经济既定事实;不同阶段不同货币政策的经济增长质量效应不同,货币政策调控存在冲击滞后异质性和冲击极值波动性;不同评价指标下,货币政策的经济增长质量调控效果存在差异,价格型货币政策为“多指标”评价体系下的最优政策选择。因此,货币当局应该合理利用不同货币政策的经济增长质量效应,构建“价主量辅”的混合型货币政策规则,引导我国经济迈向高质量发展。

China’s economy has been transitioning from a phase of rapid growth to a stage of high-quality development. Regulations on monetary policy should serve the transformation towards high-quality development. This paper measures the quality of China’s economic growth based on a mixed frequency dynamic factor model and quantifies the effect on the quality of economic growth of monetary policy with a SV-TVP-FAVAR model. The results show that: Firstly, China’s economic growth quality is generally on the rise, albeit with certain volatility, and its trend is in line with the Chinese economy;Secondly, different monetary policies have different impacts in different stages, and monetary policy regulation has heterogeneity in shock lag and volatility in extreme-value shocks;Thirdly, the effects of monetary policy are different with different evaluation indicators, and the price-based monetary policy is the optimal policy choice under the multi-index evaluation system. The central bank should utilize properly the economic growth quality effects of different monetary policies, construct a mixed monetary policy rule, and guide China’s economy to transition towards high-quality development.