洪涝灾区养猪场户生产恢复行为影响因素的实证分析——基于山东省潍坊市7个县(市、区)的调查

Empirical Analysis of the Factors Influencing the Recovery Behavior of Pig Farmers or Households in Flood-stricken Areas——A survey based on 7counties(cities,districts)in Weifang city Shandong province

2018年8月,山东省潍坊市爆发了特大洪涝灾害,寿光等7个县(市、区)的养猪场户受灾严重,洪涝灾区养猪场户生产恢复状况成为政府和社会各界时刻关注的热点问题。基于230个养猪场户的调查数据,运用Logit模型实证分析了洪涝灾区养猪场户生产恢复行为的影响因素。研究结果表明:在230个受访养猪场户中,有52.61%选择恢复生产,有47.39%放弃恢复生产并转行;家庭年均收入、养殖年限、是否参加养殖合作组织、养猪业前景预测、有无政府扶持、有无金融机构优惠、有无社会捐助等7个因素对洪涝灾区养猪场户生产恢复行为具有显著影响。

A huge flood disaster broke out in Weifang city of shandong province.Pig farms or households in Shouguang and other 6 counties(cities and districts)were seriously affected by the disaster.The production recovery of pig farm households in flood stricken areas has become a hot issue of constant concern by the government and all sectors of society.Based on the survey data of 230 pig farms or households,this paper empirically analyzed the influencing factors of production recovery behavior of pig farms or households in flood stricken areas with the Logit model.The results showed that 52.61%of the 230 surveyed pig farms or households chose to resume production,and 47.39%gave up and switched industries.The average annual income,breeding years,breeding cooperative organization,the anticipation of pig industry,government support,preferential financial institutions,social donations have a significant impact on the production recovery behavior of pig farms or households in flood disaster area.