计及负荷规模效应的售电公司决策研究

Decision-making study of electricity retailers considering the economies of scale

负荷规模对售电公司的市场参与和盈利起着重要作用。从规模经济学的角度分析了售电公司负荷规模对其经营成本和盈利能力的意义;然后考虑一定规模的售电公司与发电市场的相互作用,构建详细的购电价格模型,并基于心理学模型建立售电价格与负荷规模的关系。在此基础上,考虑市场价格与需求的不确定性,应用随机规划理论构建售电公司决策模型,以实现单位负荷的利润最大和风险最小化。模型构成的EPEC(Equilibrium Problem With Equilibrium Constraints)问题,采用敏感度函数法迭代求解。算例结果表明,该算法可以有效收敛,且售电公司的规模对降低单位购电成本具有经济效益。

Load scale has an important impact on market participation and profitability of an electricity retailer. From the perspective of scale economies, this paper analyses the significance of load scale on the operating cost and profitability of an electricity retailer. Then considering the interaction between power generation market and the retailer of a certain scale, a detailed price model of electricity purchasing is constructed. The connection between power retail price and load scale is established based on the psychological model. On this basis, considering the uncertainty of power purchasing price and demand, the stochastic programming theory is used to construct the decision model of a retailer, so as to maximize profit and minimize risk of unit load. The Equilibrium Problem with Equilibrium Constraints(EPEC) problem developed by constructed model is solved with the iterative sensitivity function method. The numerical results show that the algorithm can effectively converge, and load scale has economic benefits in reducing unit purchasing cost.