摘要
为提高水上交通事故的预测精度,考虑到多个相关因素对事故发生的影响作用,选用背景值优化的MGM(1,n)模型以及SARIMA模型两种单预测模型进行基于IOWA算子的组合,应用该模型拟合分析2008-2015年天津水域水上交通事故的统计数据,并以2016-2017年的数据验证其有效性,通过对比各预测模型的评价结果,验证组合预测模型的适用性和准确性.对天津水域的事故数进行预测,得到近3年水域内事故发生趋势.
To improve the prediction accuracy of water traffic accidents, considering the influence of many related factors on the occurrence of accidents, two single prediction models, MGM(1, n ) model optimized by background value and SARIMA model, were selected for combination based on IOWA operator. The proposed model was applied to fit and analyze the statistical data of water traffic accidents in Tianjin waters from 2008 to 2015, and the data from 2016 to 2017 were used to verify its effectiveness. The applicability and accuracy of the combined prediction model were verified by comparing the evaluation results of various prediction models. Finally, the number of accidents in Tianjin waters was predicted, and the trend of accidents in the past three years was obtained.
作者
王当利
王雪佳
吕雪
杨馨颖
WANG Dangli;WANG Xuejia;LYU Xue;YANG Xinying(School of Navigation, Wuhan University of Technology, Wuhan 430063, China;Hubei Inland Shipping Technology Key Laboratory, Wuhan 430063, China)
出处
《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》
2019年第3期404-409,共6页
Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）
关键词
水上交通安全
组合预测
模型构建
应用分析
IOWA算子
water traffic safety
combined forecasting
model construction
application analysis
IOWA operator
