淮河入江水道万福闸站近52年来降雨量变化特征分析

Analysis on variation characteristics of rainfall in Wanfu Sluice Station of Huaihe-Changjiang Water-way in recent 52 years

本文基于淮河入江水道万福闸站1966—2017年降水量资料,利用Morlet小波法和Mann-Kendall检验法对该区域的降水变化和趋势预测进行分析,为防汛抗旱和科学调度提供决策依据。结果表明:该站年降水量变化呈增加的趋势,且存在23年、14年、10年和4年多个时间尺度的周期变化,预计从2020年后将进入枯水季。

Based on the precipitation data from 1966 to 2017 at Wanfu Sluice Station in Huaihe-Changjiang Water-way,this paper analyzes the precipitation change and trend prediction in this area by using Morlet wavelet method and Mann-Kendall test method,which provides decision-making basis for flood control and drought relief and scientific dispatching.The resulted show that the annual precipitation of the station shows an increasing trend,and there were more than 23 years,14 years,10 years and 4 years of period changes.It ispredicted to enter the dry season after 2020.