基于GM(0,n)灰色预测模型的构造预测及定量评价

Structure prediction and quantitative evaluation based on GM(0,n) grey prediction model

在充分掌握芦岭井田构造发育规律的基础上,筛选易获取、能够从不同侧面反映全矿井以及已采区域地质构造复杂程度的模型评价指标,采用灰色模糊评价法制定已采区地质构造复杂程度的定量评价标准;并借助灰色系统建立了未开采区域地质构造的定量预测模型,得到未开采区域各单元评价指标预测值;通过制定的已采区域地质构造复杂程度定量评价标准完成了对未开采区域各单元地质构造的定量化研究和预测评价。评价结果可作为未采区采掘部署、采煤方法选择的有力依据。

On the basis of mastering the regularity of structure development in Luling mine field, the model evaluation indexes were selected which were easy to acquire and reflect the geological structure complexity of the whole mine and the mined area from different sides, and the quantitative evaluation criteria of the geological structure complexity of the mined area were established by using the grey fuzzy evaluation method;the quantitative prediction model of the geological structure of the unmined area was established by means of the grey system, and evaluation index prediction value of each unit of unmined area was achieved;the quantitative study and prediction evaluation of the geological structure of each unit in the unmined area were completed through the quantitative evaluation criteria of geological structure complexity in the mined area.The evaluation results could be used as a powerful basis for mining deployment and selection of mining methods in unmined areas.