基于N-K模型的铁路危险品运输系统耦合风险形成机理研究

Study on Coupling Risk Formation Mechanism of Railway Dangerous Goods Transportation System Based on N-K Model

为我国铁路危险品运输系统的安全事故预防控制和安全生产提供一定理论和实践支撑,采用N-K模型研究铁路危险品运输系统耦合风险的形成机理。首先将系统分为人、机、物、环、管5个子系统并分析造成各子系统安全事故的风险因素,将风险耦合分为单、双、多因素风险耦合3类;基于触发器概念分析耦合风险的形成机理;采用N-K模型定量描述系统的内部耦合关系。以1985-2016年中国发生的铁路危险品运输安全事故统计数据为基础进行N-K模型实例研究,结果表明:安全事故的发生取决于风险耦合值大小,而耦合值大小则与参与耦合的风险因素多少成正比;人和管的因素对耦合的影响最大。相关部门应该从管控人和管等关键因素、避免多因素耦合作用、避免在铁路危险品运输系统脆弱处发生耦合作用等方面入手,提高铁路危险品运输系统安全性。

In order to provide a theoretical and practical support for the prevention and control of accidents and for the work safety during dangerous goods transportation by railway in China,the N-K model was used to study the formation mechanism of the coupling risk of railway dangerous goods transportation system. Firstly,the system was divided into five sub-systems: human,machine,material,environment and management. The risk factors causing the safety accidents of each subsystem were analyzed. The risk coupling was divided into three types,including single,double and multi-factor risk coupling. Then the trigger concept was used to analyze the risk formation mechanism. The N-K model was applied to quantitatively describe the internal coupling relationship of the system. The N-K model case study was conducted based on statistics of railway dangerous goods transportation accidents in China from 1985 to 2016. The results show that,with more risk factors involved in coupling,and greater risk coupling value,accidents are more likely to happen. The factors of man and management have the greatest influence on coupling. Relevant departments should improve the safety of railway dangerous goods transportation system by controlling the key factors,avoiding the multi-factor coupling,avoiding coupling in the vulnerable parts of dangerous goods transportation system.