中国粮食生产与水资源的时空匹配格局

Spatial-Temporal Matching Patterns of Grain Production and Water Resources

从供需角度分析发现,2000-2017年水资源禀赋较少的北方粮食主产区对粮食灌溉水需求持续增加,而加大水资源开发的空间有限,以及农业产业内外部用水的竞争,造成粮食灌溉水供给增加及保持稳定困难极大。基于基尼系数和不平衡系数,进一步研究发现:2000-2017年全国粮食生产与水资源量空间匹配状态不断恶化,粮食生产与水资源量匹配度最差的地区是黄淮海和东北地区,作物种类是小麦和玉米;粮食产量与粮食灌溉水量长期处于匹配状态,只有小幅恶化,总体上北方粮食主产区用较少的灌溉水生产了较多粮食,即粮食灌溉水生产率更高,但仍不能完全解决该地区粮食水资源不可持续利用问题。从发展趋势看,在全球变暖、粮食生产支持政策调整、乡村功能转型和农业生产结构升级的背景下,未来促进粮食生产与水资源的时空匹配将更具挑战,需要促进北方地区粮食灌溉水生产率进一步提高。

From the perspective of supply and demand, grain irrigation water has been increasing in the northern main grain-producing provinces from 2000 to 2017. However, considering limitations of water resources exploitation and intense competition about water use from internal and external of agriculture, it is difficult to increase supply or maintain stability of existing grain irrigation water. Based on Gini coefficient and unbalanced index, the paper finds that spatial matching between grain production and water resources in China has been deteriorating from 2000 to 2017. Specifically, the worst matching areas are Huanghuaihai area and the Northeastern China, and the worst matching varieties are wheat and maize. There has been a matching state, which is only slightly worsening, between grain production and irrigation water input. Regionally, main food producing provinces in North have produced more grain with less irrigation water, in other words, grain irrigation water productivity of these area is high, however, which cannot have fixed problem that is unsustainable utilization of grain irrigation water in the Northeastern China. From perspective of developing, under global warming, adjustment of grain production supporting policies, transformation of rural functions and agricultural structure upgradation, it will be more challenging to promote the spatial-temporal matching of grain production and water resources in the future. Particularly, it is necessary to further improve grain irrigation water productivity of the Northern China.