2013—2018年北京市西城区水痘流行特征及疫情预测

Epidemiological characteristics and epidemic prediction of varicella in Xicheng District of Beijing( 2013-2018)

目的了解2013—2018年北京市西城区水痘疫情的流行病学特征,为更有效的控制水痘暴发和流行提供科学依据。方法数据来自中国疾病预防控制信息系统,采用描述流行病学方法对2013—2018年北京市西城区水痘病例的发病特点及特征进行流行病学分析,并通过建立自回归移动平均模型(autoregressive integrated moving average model,ARIMA)对2019年西城区水痘发病趋势进行预测。结果2013-2018年北京市西城区共报告水痘病例4777例,年平均发病率为63.18/10万。水痘发病总体呈现下降趋势,发病具有明显季节性,主要集中在3~5月和10月~次年1月。街道发病率差异有统计学意义(χ^2=167.36,P=0.000),不同性别发病率差异无统计学意义(χ^2=0.462,P=0.993),各年龄组间发病人数差异有统计学意义(χ^2=136.93,P=0.000),职业分布以学生为主,各职业间差异有统计学意义(χ^2=88.042,P=0.003)。利用ARIMA(1,0,0)×(0,1,1)12模型预测2019年西城区水痘发病,2019年1~12月预测发病率在3.05/10万~7.55/10万之间,总发病率60.59/10万,月平均发病率5.05/10万。除了1月、10月和11月3个月外,2019年各月发病率均高于2018年的同期发病率。结论西城区水痘发病率低于全国水平,预测2019年西城区水痘发病率略高于2018年,应采取有效措施,更好的控制水痘的发病率。

Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of varicella epidemic in Xicheng District of Beijing from 2013 to 2018,and to provide scientific basis for more effective control of varicella outbreak and epidemic. Methods Data were collected from China Disease Prevention and Control Information System (CDIS) for varicella cases in Xicheng District of Beijing from 2013 to 2018. Epidemiological characteristics and features of varicella cases in Xicheng District were analyzed by descriptive epidemiological method. Autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was established to predict the incidence trend of varicella in Xicheng District in 2019. Results A total of 4 777 varicella cases were reported in Xicheng District of Beijing from 2013 to 2018,with an average annual incidence of 63.18/100 000. The incidence of varicella showed a downward trend,with obvious seasonality,mainly concentrated in March to-May and October to next January. There were significant differences in the incidence rate in different communities (χ^2=167.36, P =0.000),but there was no significant difference in the incidence rate between different genders (χ^2=0.462, P =0.993). There were significant differences in the number of cases among different age groups (χ^2 = 136.93, P =0.000). The occupational distribution was mainly students,and there were significant differences among different occupations (χ^2= 88.042, P =0.003). ARIMA(1,0,0)×(0,1,1)12 model was used to predict the peak incidence of varicella in Xicheng District in 2019. From January to December in 2019,the predicted incidence of varicella ranged from 3.05/100 000 to 7.55/100 000,with a total incidence of 60.59/100 000 and the monthly average incidence rate of 5.05/100 000. Except for January,October and November,the incidence in each month of 2019 was higher than that in the same period of 2018. Conclusion The incidence of varicella in Xicheng District was lower than the national level. It is predicted that the incidence of varicella in Xicheng District in 2019 is slightly higher than that in 2018. Effective measures should be taken to better control the incidence of varicella.