“一带一路”国家能源利用效率评价及其与经济增长脱钩分析

National energy efficiency of countries in the“Belt and Road”region and its decoupling from economic growth

提高能源利用效率可以降低能耗,促进各国经济持续增长。能源利用效率的提高与经济高质增长的协调发展,是增进各国人民福祉的本质要求。本文运用方向性距离函数(DDF)和Global Malmquist-Luenberger(GML)指数测算出1995—2015年"一带一路"沿线50个国家的能源利用效率,构建脱钩模型,探讨经济增长与能源消耗及能源利用效率的"脱钩"关系,研究发现:①1995—2015年"一带一路"国家能源利用效率整体均值为0.682,先下降后上升,在2008年达到峰值0.833,然后处于波动下降中;②"一带一路"国家能源利用效率在1995—2015年累计增长17.5%,追赶效率和技术进步贡献率分别为7.2%和10.0%,共同促进能源利用效率提升,除独联体出现负增长外,其他地区能源利用效率均有不同程度的提升;③"一带一路"国家经济增长和能源消耗、能源利用效率的脱钩关系从偏离弱脱钩变为实现弱脱钩,再发展为偏离弱脱钩,有待于继续减少能耗,提升能源利用效率,促进经济增长。因此,今后各国应从追赶效率和技术进步入手,提升能源利用效率,早日实现经济增长与能源消耗的强脱钩、与能源利用效率的弱脱钩或者扩张性负脱钩关系。

Increasing energy efficiency can reduce energy consumption and promote sustained economic growth in all countries. The coordinated development of energy efficiency and high quality economic growth is an essential requirement for enhancing the well-being of people in all countries. This study used Directional Distance Function(DDF) and Global Malmquist-Luenberger(GML) index to calculate the energy efficiency of 50 countries along the Belt and Road initiative region from 1995 to 2015, and constructed a model to explore the"decoupling"relationship between economic growth and energy consumption and energy efficiency. The study found that:(1)From 1995 to 2015, the overall energy efficiency of the countries in the Belt and Road region averaged 0.682, first falling then rising, reaching a peak of 0.833 in 2008, and then fluctuating with a falling trend;(2) In 1995-2015, energy efficiency of these countries increased by 17.5%. The catch-up efficiency and technological progress contribution rates were 7.2% and 10.0%,respectively, which jointly promoted the improvement of energy efficiency. Except for the negative growth of the Commonwealth of Independent States(CIS), Energy efficiency in other regions has increased to varying degrees;(3) Decoupling between economic growth and energy consumption and energy efficiency of the Belt and Road countries is determined by continuing to reduce energy consumption, improve energy efficiency, and promote economic growth, and it has gone through a process of drifting away from weak decoupling, weak decoupling, and again drifting away from weak decoupling. Therefore in the future, countries should start with focusing on catching-up efficiency and technological progress, improve energy efficiency, and achieve a strong decoupling between economic growth and energy consumption, a weak decoupling between economic growth and energy efficiency, or a negative decoupling relationship.