以贸易赤字之名解财政赤字之困——解析特朗普贸易战动机

The Real Motive of Trump’s Trade War Is about Fiscal Deficit

特朗普发动贸易战的真实动机并非解决贸易赤字问题而是应对财政赤字困局。他推动实施的大规模减税方案扩大了美国联邦财政的赤字规模,而美联储主席鲍威尔上任后实施的鹰派加息政策,导致联邦政府利息支出大幅上升,进一步恶化了特朗普政府财政状况。民主党可以利用债务上限、PAYGO条款等立法资源限制甚至逆转特朗普的政绩。在此背景下,特朗普不得不以贸易赤字为借口,向主要贸易伙伴提高进口关税,以此复活了此前已经被否定的"边境调节税"。上述财政分析视角能够很好地解释他发动贸易战的方式、时机以及过去一年来的一系列言行。中国应该在塑造和构思中美关系时考虑到这一重大因素,并围绕其联邦财政困境创造性地设计中美之间的"大交易"。

The real motive for Trump to launch the Sino-US Trade War is not rooted in solving the trade deficit, but rather dealing with its fiscal deficit. The massive tax cuts he promoted have widened US federal fiscal deficit, while the interest-rate rising by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has led to a sharp surge in interest payment to serve the federal debt, further worsening the Trump Administration’s fiscal situation. Democrats can use debt ceiling and PAYGO provision to limit or even reverse his achievements. Therefore, Trump had to use the trade deficit as an excuse to raise import tariffs on key trading partners, thus reviving the previously denied "Border Adjustment Tax". This financial analysis can well explain the way and timing that he launched the trade war, as well as his other behavior. China should make proper adjustments to its negotiation strategy and creatively design the "Grand Bargain" between the United States and China by addressing the US’s fiscal situation.