基于百度迁徙数据的长春市春运人口流动时空格局与动力机制

Spatial-Temporal Pattern and Dynamic Mechanism of Population Flow of Changchun City During Chunyun Period Based on Baidu Migration Data

基于2015年春运期间长春市与省外城市的人口迁移数据,结合GIS空间表达、自然断裂法、等级钟等方法,分析长春市人口流动的层级特征、空间格局、时序特征及动力机制。研究表明:①春运期间其他城市与长春市间的人口流动具有明显的层级特征,高层级城市的组成遵循拉文斯坦的经济律,低层级城市的空间布局遵循距离律。②长春春运人口流动高度集中于“胡焕庸线”以东区域,其中长春人口联系的重点区域集中于京津冀与长三角地区且分布形态呈现出金字塔式层级分布结构。③春节前后人口流动存在差异,节前迁移城市集中化,节后迁移城市多样化和分散化。④经济律和距离律在人口迁移中起核心作用,而地理认同、适应性及部分特殊城市的特殊职能对迁移方向也存在明显影响。⑤长春市承担吉林省人口流出的门户功能。⑥百度迁徙数据在人口流动研究中具有很好的表征作用,但仍然存在偏向和缺乏个体信息等固有缺陷。

Baidu migration data provides a new research tool for quantitative analysis and depicting the population spatial flow during a specific period. Based on the population flow data between Changchun City and cities in other provinces during the 2015 Spring Festival, combining with GIS spatial expression, natural break and Rank Clock Method, this article analyzes the hierarchy of population flow characteristics, spatial patterns and temporal characteristics and dynamic mechanism in Changchun City. Research shows that: 1) During Chunyun period, the population flow between Changchun and other cities has obvious hierarchy characteristics, composition of high-level cities follows Ravenstein’s economic law, spatial distribution of low-level cities follows Ravenstein’s distance law. 2) Population flow of Changchun highly gathers in the east of Hu Huanyong line. Besides, main areas of Changchun’s population flow distribute in the Yangtze River Delta region and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, it presents pyramid hierarchy distribution structure. 3) The population flow before and after the Spring Festival are quite different. The population flow is in the centralized distribution ahead of the festival and in the diverse and scattering distribution after the festival. 4) Economic law and distance law on the population migration play a central role, and the geographical identity, the adaptability and some special functions of special cities obviously effect on the migration directions. 5) Changchun City undertakes the population outflow portal function in Jilin Province. 6) Baidu migration data in the study of population flow has a good characterization of role, but it still has inherent defects such as a bias and lack of individual information.