城镇居民消费结构升级与城乡收入差距的动态分析

Dynamic Analysis of the Upgrading of Consumption Structure of Urban Residents and the Income Gap between Urban and Rural Areas

基于多变量VAR模型,利用1995年至2017年间的时间序列数据,分别建立城镇居民的传统型消费、热点型消费与城乡收入差距的四变量、五变量的VAR模型,然后在此基础上使用脉冲响应分析城镇居民消费结构升级与城乡收入差距的动态关系,分析表明,从长期来看,传统型消费对城乡收入差距的扩大起到一定的抑制作用,热点型消费对城乡收入的扩大带来一定的正向冲击效应。在传统型消费向热点型消费过度的过程中,城镇居民的消费结构发生升级同时也带来了城乡收入差距的扩大。

Based on the multivariate VAR model, this paper uses the time series data from 1995 to 2017 to establish a four-variable and five-variable VAR models of urban residents′ traditional consumption, hot-spot consumption and urban-rural income gap. Then, on this basis, the dynamic relationship between urban residents′ consumption structure upgrading and urban-rural income gap is analyzed by using impulse response. The analysis shows that, in the long run, traditional consumption has a certain inhibitory effect on the expansion of urban-rural income gap, and hot-spot consumption has a certain positive impact on the expansion of urban-rural income. In the process of the transition from traditional consumption to hot-spot consumption, the upgrading of the consumption structure of urban residents also brings about the widening of urban-rural income gap.