北极航线安全演化机制与管理策略

Evolution Mechanism And Management Strategy of the Arctic Route Security

北极航线作为"冰上丝绸之路"的主要载体,北极航线安全对于建设"冰上丝绸之路"尤为重要.本文通过借鉴传染病模型的构造思路,结合安全系统的特点,建立安全系统的演化机制.然后,运用平均场理论建立了安全系统的微分方程组模型,并对此模型进行平衡点和稳定性分析.最后,根据北极航线安全现状,通过设置不同的情景,考查了不同外部干预下北极航线安全的演化趋势,从而提出相应的对策和建议.研究结果能够为北极航线的开发利用提供借鉴.

Arctic Route is the main carrier of the Ice Silk Road initiative. The safety of the Arctic Route plays a vital role in the construction of the Ice Silk Road. Combined with the characteristics of safety system, this paper established the evolution mechanism of the safety system by using the construction of the epidemic model for reference. Then, we adopted mean field theory to establish the model of differential equations of safety system and the equilibrium point and stability of the model are analyzed. Finally, according to the safety status of the Arctic Route, this paper examined the safety evolution trend of the Arctic Route under different external intervention by setting up different scenarios, and the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward. The research results can provide reference for the development and utilization of Arctic Route.