四川省入境旅游需求组合预测研究

Research on Demand Forecast of Entry Tourism in Chengdu Based on Combination of Various Models

通过对四川省入境旅游人数的准确预测,可以加强政府部门对旅游行业的把控,引导旅游市场资源的合理利用与配置提供了技术支持.建立了4种预测模型,对四川省入境旅游人数进行预测.比较两个误差指标值,表明组合预测方法能够有效地提高预测精度.

Through the accurate prediction of the number of inbound tourists in Sichuan Province, it is possible to strengthen the government departments’ control over the tourism industry and provide technical support for guiding the rational use and allocation of tourism market resources. This paper establishes four prediction models to predict the number of inbound tourists in Sichuan Province. Comparing the two error index values shows that the combined prediction method can effectively improve the prediction accuracy.