基于年时序仿真的增量配电网投资效益评估及敏感性分析

Investment Benefit Evaluation and Sensitivity Analysis of Incremental Distribution Network Based on Annual Time Series Simulation

新电改政策提出有序放开增量配电业务,鼓励社会资本投资增量配电网。是否具有投资效益是社会资本进行投资决策的关键,目前尚无针对增量配电网项目投资效益的评估计算方法,且分布式电源和负荷的时序波动性以及增量配电网运营模式的多变性给效益评估带来诸多困难。为此,分析了增量配电网的运营模式,建立了增量配电网投资效益评估模型,通过净现值、动态投资回收期、净现值率等指标进行经济性评估。采用年时序仿真法对项目的成本和收益进行详细仿真计算,并针对负荷密度、分布式电源补贴费用、不同类型负荷比例等关键参数进行了敏感性分析。最后,结合算例,分场景讨论分析,验证了所提方法的有效性。

New electricity reform policy puts forward orderly liberalization of incremental power distribution business and encourages social capital to invest in incremental distribution network. Whether it has investment benefits is the key to investment decision-making for social capital. There is currently no method for evaluating the investment benefits of incremental distribution network projects, and the time series fluctuation of distributed power supply and load and the variability of incremental distribution network operation mode bring many difficulties to benefit evaluation. To this end, this paper analyzes the operation mode of incremental distribution network, establishes an evaluation model of incremental distribution network investment benefit, and conducts economic evaluation with indicators such as net present value, dynamic investment recovery period and net present value ratio. Annual time series simulation method is used to simulate and analyze the cost and benefit of the projects, and sensitivity analysis is carried out for key parameters such as load density, distributed power subsidy cost, and different types of load ratio. Finally, combined with examples, discussion and analysis of the scenes are performed to verify effectiveness of the proposed method.