中国水产品价格波动研究——基于消费棘轮与渔业转型的背景因素分析

Research on China's aquatic product price fluctuation——Analysis of background factors based on consumption ratcheting and fishery transformation

随着中国居民生活水平的提高,水产品消费日益成为食品消费的重要组成部分。本文基于2000年1月-2018年8月的历史数据,通过构建协整方程,分析了货币因素、畜类产品价格和豆粕价格对水产品价格波动的影响。研究表明:相较于其他大宗农产品,水产品价格波动幅度较大;在考虑到交互项的情况下,流通中现金量M0、畜类价格指数、豆粕价格均对水产品价格指数上升有一定的影响。本文基于分析结果得出了增加水产品供给、提高水产品附加值、风险防控等政策启示。

With the improvement of the living standards of Chinese residents, the consumption of aquatic products has increasingly become an important part of food consumption. Based on the historical data from January 2000 to August 2018, this paper analyzes the impact of monetary factors, animal product prices and soybean meal prices on aquatic product price fluctuations by constructing co-integration equations. The research shows that the price of aquatic products fluctuates greatly compared with other large-scale agricultural products;in the case of considering the interaction item, the cash M0 in circulation, the price index of livestock and the price of soybean meal all have certain influence on the rise of aquatic product price index. Based on the analysis results, this paper proposes policy recommendations for increasing the supply of aquatic products and increasing the added value of aquatic products.