农地适度规模经营测度研究——基于国际水稻种植数据的门槛回归分析

Study on the Measurement of Moderate Scale Operation of Agricultural Land——Threshold regression analysis based on international rice planting data

农地适度规模经营有利于提高土地生产效率,促进我国农业现代化建设。本文采用国际间水稻种植数据,运用面板门槛模型对农地适度规模进行测度,分析结果表明:在水稻种植中,农地规模与农地产出显著相关,但两者之间并非简单的线性相关,其结构突变点分别为34公顷和113公顷:在农地规模小于34公顷时,两者显著正相关,当农地规模扩大至113公顷后,两者呈现显著负相关关系;从追求农地产出效率的角度看,水稻种植的适度经营规模为劳均34公顷。此外,本文基于实证分析的结论,提出了促进我国农地适度规模集中的的对策建议。

Moderate scale operation of farmland is conducive to improving land production efficiency and promoting China’s agricultural modernization. In this paper, the international rice planting data is used to measure the appropriate scale of agricultural land using the panel threshold model. The results show that the scale of farmland is significantly correlated with the output of farmland in rice planting, but the two are not simply linearly related. The structural mutation points are 34 hectares and113 hectares respectively: when the scale of agricultural land is less than 34 hectares, the two are significantly positively correlated. When the scale of agricultural land is expanded to 113 hectares, the two have a significant negative correlation;from the pursuit of agricultural land output From the perspective of efficiency, the modest scale of rice planting is 34 hectares of labor. In addition, based on the conclusions of empirical analysis, this paper proposes countermeasures to promote the moderate scale of agricultural land in China.