劳动力价格对劳动力跨国流动影响研究

Research on the Impact of Labor Price on Labor Transnational Flow

随着我国经济发展水平的提高,劳动力价格不断上涨。本文选取1987-2017年中国在岗职工平均实际工资和对外劳务输出人数年度数据,通过协整检验、格兰杰因果检验以及脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法验证二者之间的相关关系,从而探究劳动力价格上涨对劳动力跨国流动产生的影响。结果表明:协整检验证明二者之间具有长期均衡关系;劳动力价格是劳动力跨国流动变化的单向格兰杰原因。劳动力跨国流动对劳动力价格增长率的脉冲响应由正变负;进一步得出劳动力价格上涨率对劳动力跨国流动变化率的贡献度最终稳定在14%左右,说明劳动力价格上涨对劳动力跨国流动变化的影响显著。除此之外,劳动力跨国流动还会受自身影响。据此,本文得出相应的政策启示。

As China’s economic development has improved, labor prices have continued to rise.This paper selects the annual average real wages of Chinese employees and the number of foreign labor exporters from 1987 to 2017. The co-integration test, Granger causality test, and impulse response function and variance decomposition method are used to verify the correlation between the two, so as to explore the labor force. The impact of rising prices on the movement of labor across borders. The results show that the cointegration test proves that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two;labor price is the one-way Granger cause of the change of labor cross-border flow. The impulse response of labor force cross-border movement to labor price growth rate is positively negative;further it is concluded that the contribution rate of labor price increase rate to labor change rate is finally stabilized at around 14%, indicating the impact of labor price increase on labor cross-border movement changes. Significant. In addition, the cross-border movement of labor will be affected by itself. Based on this, this paper proposes corresponding policy implications.