安徽省卫生人力资源预测——基于非季节性霍尔特指数法的研究

Prediction of health human resources in Anhui Province: a study based on non-seasonal Holt index method

目的测算2018-2030年安徽省卫生人力资源状况,并探讨非季节性霍尔特指数法在卫生人力资源中预测应用。方法采用非季节性霍尔特指数平滑法,利用安徽省2008-2017年卫生人力资源的相关数据,对安徽省2018-2030年卫生人力资源进行预测,并使用Pearson积差相关系数拟合模型。结果 2018-2030年,安徽省各类卫生技术人员人数均呈上升趋势;除了注册护士外,其他卫生技术人员比例均呈下降趋势,其中基层卫生技术人员下降较显著。每千人注册护士数未达国家平均水平,每千人执业(助理)医师数在2030年前不能达到国家标准。结论根据拟合结果,实际值和预测值相关性较强,预测较准确,建议政府部门要重视相关人才培养和政策扶持力度。

Objective To estimate the status of health human resources in Anhui Province from 2018 to 2030, and to explore the application of non-seasonal Holt index method in the prediction of health human resources. Methods The non-seasonal Holt index smoothing method was used, combined with the related data of Anhui health human resources from 2008 to 2017, to predict the health human resources in Anhui Province from 2018 to 2030, and Pearson product difference correlation coefficient was used to fit the model. Results The results showed that from 2018 to 2030, the number of all kinds of healthcare professionals showed an upward trend. Except for registered nurses, the proportion of other healthcare professionals showed a downward trend, among which the decline of grass-roots healthcare professionals was more significant. The number of registered nurses per 1,000 people was not up to the national average, and the number of practicing(assistant) physicians per 1 000 people would not meet the national standard by 2030. Conclusions According to the fitting results, the correlation between the actual value and the predicted value is strong, and the prediction is accurate, thus it is suggested that the government attach great importance to talent training and policy support.