美国公众的世界观念调查报告(2017～2018)

Investigation Report on the American Public’s Perception of the World(2017-2018)

通过分析国家传播战略研究院2017-2018年度美国全国性民调数据,本文从大国观念、中国观念、欧洲观念和亚洲观念四个方面出发>揭示当前美国公众世界观念的基本面貌,并筛选出在全球政治经济格局中具有重要意义的若干事件,调查美国公众对于这些事件的看法。另外,本文还涉及美国公众对本国发展的总体认知以及对总统特朗普的多维度评价。研究表明,在美国公众眼中,中国崛起对美国既是机遇又是挑战,大多数受访者表示中美应加强沟通以降低双边关系中的变数。数据显示,美国社会中的不满情绪普遍存在,公众认为特朗普执政带来的内忧外患局面使得美国处于动荡之中。受访者总体对"中美贸易战"持消极看法,认为中美两国的经贸摩擦将对全球经济增长带来负面效应。仅有一成的受访者对未来中美关系的走向持有乐观态度,这说明特朗普政府主导的对华政策全面转向,在极大程度上引发了美国公众对两国关系的担忧。美国受访者普遍肯定中国在经济、科技、军事和社会发展等各个领域的强劲发展势头。从数据观之,美国政治两极化现象严重,不同族裔、收入水平和受教育程度群体对特朗普的评分差异明显。在对美、中、俄三国领导人的评价中,美国公众对于中国领导人好感度最高。

By analyzing the American national survey data collected by the Institute of National Communication Strategy(INCS, HUST) in 2017-2018, the study examines the basic features of the American public’s "perception of the world" from four aspects, including the great-power concept, perception of China, perception of Europe and perception of Asia. The study screens out a number of events that are important in the global political and economic landscape to investigate the American public’s perception of them. In addition, the study also covers the general public’s perception of America’s development and their multi-dimensional evaluation of President Trump. The result shows that in the eyes of the American public, China’s rise is both an opportunity and a challenge. Most respondents indicated that China and the United States should strengthen communication to reduce the uncertainties in bilateral relations. The data reveals that there is widespread dissatisfaction in the American society, and the public believes that the internal and external problems caused by the Trump administration have led America to be mired in turmoil.Respondents generally held a negative view on the "Sino-US trade war" and believed that the economic and trade friction would have a negative impact on global economic growth. Only 10% of respondents are optimistic about the future development of Sino-US relations. This shows that the Trump government-led overall shift in policy toward China has triggered the public’s concerns about the relationship between the two countries to a great extent. The US respondents generally affirmed China’s strong development momentum in various fields, such as economy, science and technology, military and social development. According to the data, the political polarization in the United States has become increasingly serious, and people with different ethnic, income, and education level background have significantly different opinions on Trump. In the evaluation of the leaders of the United States, China and Russia, the American public gave the Chinese leader the highest score.