基于STIRPAT模型的内蒙古沙漠化地区环境压力分析

Environmental Pressure Analysis of Desertification in Inner Mongolia Based on STIRPAT Model

实现经济与生态环境的协调发展,已经成为当前治理沙漠化的巨大挑战。如何定量分析人类活动和自然条件对环境的影响,是当前环境经济学界研究的热点问题。以内蒙古自治区71个沙漠化县为研究对象,以1986-2010年为研究区间做面板空间计量实证分析。选取了人口、富裕度、技术水平、风速和降水作为环境基础指标构建STIRPAT模型,从环境压力内在驱动角度定量分析不同的自然因素和人为因素对沙漠化地区环境的综合影响。结果表明:在观测数据范围内,富裕度、技术水平、风速和降水是内蒙古自治区环境压力的主要驱动因素;富裕度每增加1%,环境压力显著增加0.096%;技术水平每变化1%,将引起环境压力相应发生0.084%的变化;风速和降水每变动1%分别使得沙漠地区环境压力显著地增加0.640%和减少0.216%。

The coordinated development of the economic and ecological environment has become a huge challenge in the current management of desertification. How to quantitatively analyze the impact of human activities and natural conditions on the environment has become a hot issue in the current research of environmental economics, and it is also a problem to be studied in this paper. This paper uses a panel spatial econometric model for empirical analysis in 71 desertification counties in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region over the period 1986-2010. We select the number of agricultural labor, capita GDP, technological level,wind speed, and precipitation as the basic indicators of environment to build the STIRPAT model. The comprehensive impact of different natural factors and human factors on the environmental pressure in desertification areas was quantitatively analyzed from the point of internal driving force of environmental pressure. The study shows that capita GDP, technological level, wind speed and precipitation are the main drivers of environmental pressure in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region within the scope of observational data;As the degree of affluence increased by 1%, the environmental pressure increased significantly by 0.096%, and each change of 1% of the technical level would lead to a 0.084% change in the environmental pressure.The each change of 1% of wind speed and precipitation will respectively lead to a significant increase of 0.640% and reduce by 0.216% of the environmental pressure in desert areas.