俄罗斯地区选举与地区政治新发展——兼论2018年地区选举

Regional Elections and Regional Political Development in Russia: also on the 2018 Russian Federal Regional Elections

俄罗斯地区选举与俄罗斯地区政治发展、央地关系变化密切相关,涉及到政党、选举、地区精英、地区经济社会发展等诸多复杂问题,是研究俄罗斯威权制度内部运行机制的重要切入点之一。从普京第一个总统任期开始,地区选举的制度与实践一直在变化中发展:中央的选举策略由严格控制政党数量转为允许更多政党存在;地区立法机构选举由大力推行比例选举制转为促进混合选举制回归;州长选举经历了直选-任命-直选的变化;威权选举制度的主要角色由统一俄罗斯党转化为州长;地区精英从追求独立性转向合作妥协,尽量争取得到更多的利益。在地区选举和地区政治中,除了上述变化,也存在一些不变的逻辑:中央对地区选举控制的决心不变;中央控制地区选举的主要手段没有发生实质的变化。自普京第三个总统任期以来,俄罗斯国内政治领域的控制性增强,这种控制体现在其内部政治生态的各个领域,包括地区政治和地区选举。2018年的地区选举中出现了近10年来相对意外的选情,但分析威权制度设计的根本可以发现,在当前环境下,俄联邦地区选举中依然很难出现反对派实际掌控地区局势的情况。

Regional elections in Russia are closely related to the regional political development in Russian and the changes in the relationship between central and local governments. They involve many complex issues such as political parties, elections, regional elites and regional economic and social development. They constitute one of the important contents in making researches on the internal operating mechanism of Russian authoritarian system. Since Putin’s first presidential term, the system and practice of regional elections in Russia have been undergoing the following changes. The central electoral strategy has changed from strictly controlling the number of political parties to allowing more political parties to exist;the regional legislative elections have changed from vigorously promoting proportional elections to mixed elections;for governor elections, they have undergone changes from direct elections to appointments then to direct elections;the main role of the authoritarian electoral system has changed from the United Russia Party to the governor;regional elites changed from pursuing independence to cooperating and making compromises,striving for more benefits. In addition to the above changes, there also exists some unchanged logic: the central government’s determination to control regional elections remains unchanged;the main means of central control of regional elections have not changed substantially. Since Putin’s third presidential term, Russia’s domestic political control has increased, which is reflected in various areas of its domestic political ecology, including regional politics and regional elections. Although something relatively unexpected happened to regional elections of 2018, yet it is still rather difficult for the opposition to actually control the regional situation in Russian Federal Regional Elections against current background by analyzing the design of authoritarian system.