仿真模型可信度评估研究综述及难点分析

Overview and Difficulties Analysis on Credibility Assessment of Simulation Models

近年来,随着计算机和建模与仿真技术的不断发展,仿真模型在军事、社会、经济等领域得到了广泛应用。同时,仿真模型的功能和性能大大增强,仿真系统越来越复杂,仿真模型的可信度评估面临着新的挑战,已经成为建模与仿真领域的关键难题。鉴于此,文中对国内外仿真模型可信度研究的主要工作进行了系统的回顾与总结,特别地分析了近年来的最新研究成果。首先,明确了仿真模型可信度的概念及其与校核、验证与确认(Verification,Validation and Accreditation,VV&A)之间的关系;然后,总结了仿真模型可信度研究的发展历程、范式和生命周期模型,对仿真模型可信度评估的方法与技术进行了总结与分类;最后,提出了仿真模型可信度评估面临的8项挑战。通过综述与难点分析,文章为制定仿真模型可信度评估的研究框架、创新可信度评估理论和方法提供了参考。

Along with the developing of computing and modeling and simulation techniques,simulation models have been applied in military,social and economic areas widely in these years.Meanwhile,the capabilities of simulation mo-dels become more and more strong,and simulation systems become more and more complex.Thus,the credibility assessment of simulation models is confronted with many challenges and becomes the crucial difficult problem nowadays.This paper reviewed principal works,especially current researches on credibility assessment of simulation models.Firstly,the concept of credibility and its relationship with Verification,Validation and Accreditation(VV&A)were introduced.Secondly,the research history,paradigm and life cycle of credibility assessment of simulation models were summarized,and important methods and techniques were analyzed and classified.Finally,eight challenges of credibility assessment of simulation models were presented.The overview and difficulties analysis provide significant references for constructing the framework and innovating theories and methods for the credibility assessment of simulation models.