气候变暖背景下贵州省烤烟种植有效积温时空演变研究

Spatial-temporal evolution of effective accumulative temperature during flue-cured tobacco planting in Guizhou province under the background of climate warming

基于1961—2015年历史气象数据及不同排放背景下(RCP2.6,RCP4.5,RCP8.5)2016—2099年气象预估数据,采用趋势分析法、空间插值法和小波分析法分析了贵州省烤烟种植大田生育期有效积温时空演变规律。结果表明:1)1961—2015年,贵州省烤烟伸根期、旺长期、成熟期以及总生长期的有效积温均呈缓慢上升趋势。各阶段及总生长期有效积温变化空间格局存在差异。伸根期、旺长期、成熟期以及总生长期的有效积温变化主周期分别为22,29,28和29a。2)2016—2099年间,除RCP2.6背景下成熟期外,其他背景下各阶段及总生长期的烤烟有效积温均呈上升趋势。除RCP8.5背景下外,各背景下各阶段及总生长期的烤烟有效积温变化空间格局较为接近。各背景下有效积温变化主周期均为56a。

The temporal and spatial evolutions of effective accumulative temperature during the growth period of flue-cured tobacco plantation in Guizhou province were analyzed by the method of trend analysis,spatial interpolation and wavelet analysisbased on the historical meteorological data from 1961 to 2015 and meteorological forecast data from 2016 to 2099 under different emission scenarios(RCP 2.6,RCP 4.5,RCP 8.5).The results showed that:1)the effective accumulative temperature of flue-cured tobacco in Guizhou province showed a slow upward trend from 1961 to 2015.The spatial patterns of effective accumulative temperature change in each stage and total growth period were different.The main periods of effective accumulative temperature change during the cycle-mass period,flourishing period,mature period and total growth period were 22,29,28 and 29 a,respectively.2)The effective accumulative temperature of flue-cured tobacco at all stages and the total growth stage in other scenarios showed an upward trendexcept the mature stage under the RCP 2.6 scenarioduring the period from 2016 to 2099.The spatial patterns of effective accumulative temperature change of flue-cured tobacco in each stage and the total growth period were relatively close except for the RCP 8.5 scenario.The main period of effective accumulative temperature change was 56 a under each scenario.