基于区间灰关联的玉米不同生长阶段气象因素对产量影响的量化分析

Quantitative analysis of the influence of meteorological factors on yield during different growth periods of maize based on interval grey incidence model

为探究气象因素对河南省玉米不同生长阶段的影响,采用灰色关联分析模型对河南省气象因素与玉米气象产量的相关性进行分析。以河南省郑州市为代表,将玉米生长划分为5个生长阶段,选取郑州市2007—2016年的气象数据及玉米产量数据,采用HP滤波法求得玉米的气象产量,采用不同灰色关联分析模型求得玉米气象产量与各生长阶段气象因素的关联度,发现区间灰数绝对关联模型的排序结果更加符合实际,进而采用该模型分析各气象因素对玉米不同生长阶段影响程度的大小。结果表明,日最高气温(0.6423)、日平均气温(0.6185)在玉米乳熟—成熟阶段对气象产量影响较大;平均相对湿度在玉米出苗—拔节(0.6041)、拔节—抽雄(0.5932)阶段对气象产量影响较大,日照时数在玉米出苗—拔节(0.5796)及乳熟—成熟(0.5892)阶段对气象产量产生较大影响,日最低气温在玉米播种—出苗(0.6064)阶段对气象产量影响最大,平均风速在玉米乳熟—成熟(0.5796)阶段对气象产量影响最大。

In order to explore the influence of meteorological factors during different growth periods of maize in Henan province,the grey incidence analysis model was used to analyze the incidence between meteorological factors and meteorological yields in Henan province.Taking Zhengzhou city,Henan province as the representative,the maize growth was divided into five growth periods,and the meteorological data and production data of Zhengzhou city from 2007 to 2016 were selected.The HP filter method was used to obtain the meteorological yield of maize.The incidence degree between meteorological yield of maize and meteorological factors during various growth periods was obtained by using different grey incidence analysis models.It was found that the ranking results of the absolute incidence model of interval grey number were more realistic.Furthermore,the model was used to analyze the influence degree of various meteorological factors during different growth periods of maize.The results showed that the daily maximum temperature(0.642 3)and the daily mean temperature(0.618 5)has a great influence on the meteorological yield during the period of milky maturity to maturity.The average relative humidity has a great influence on the meteorological yield during the period of emergence to jointing(0.604 1)and jointing to heading(0.593 2).The sunshine hours has a great influence on the meteorological yield during the period of emergence to jointing(0.579 6)and milky maturity to maturity(0.589 2).The daily minimum temperature has a great influence on the meteorological yield during the period of sowing to emergence(0.606 4).The average wind speed has a great influence on the meteorological yield during the period of milky maturity to maturity(0.579 6).