基于EKC的中国人均CO2排放量增长率影响因素研究

Study on the influencing factors of China’s per capita carbon dioxide emission growth rate based on EKC

运用计量经济模型拓展研究了中国环境库兹涅茨曲线。研究结果表明,人均二氧化碳排放量与人均GDP、非化石能源所占比重、全要素生产率的关系显著,人均二氧化碳排放量与人均GDP呈现倒“U”型关系,非化石能源所占比重每提高1%,人均二氧化碳排放减少0.041t,全要素生产率每提高一个单位,人均二氧化碳排放减少1.79t。基于经济平衡增长思想,研究了中国人均二氧化碳排放量增长率与人均GDP增长率、碳排放结构系数增长率以及全要素生产率增长率的关系。研究结果揭示了环境库兹涅茨曲线中人均二氧化碳排放量不增长的条件是人均产出增长率小于等于效率和结构增速之和,计算出了“十三五”期间人均二氧化碳排放量增长率的允许变化区间为[-0.94%,3.9%]。

The econometric model was used to extend the research on the environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)in China.The results of the research showedthat per capita carbon dioxide emissions had significant relationship with per capita GDP,the percentage of non-fossil energy and TFP,but had an inverted U curve relationship with per capita GDP.If the percentage of non-fossil energy increased by 1%,per capita carbon dioxide emissions would decrease by 0.041 ton,TFP would increase by one unit,per capita carbon dioxide emissions would decrease by 1.79 ton.The paper studied the relationships between growth rate of per capita carbon dioxide emissions and growth rate of per capita GDP in China,growth rate of carbon emission structure coefficient and growth rate of TFP based on the idea of balanced economic growth.The research results reveal that in the EKC,the per capita carbon dioxide emission does not increase if the per capita output growth rate is less than or equal to the sum of the efficiency and structural growth rate,and the allowable changing range of growth rate of per capita carbon dioxide emissions is during the 13th Five-Year plan period.