部门之间生产率收敛对中国各省产业结构转型和总生产率的影响

Influences of Productivity Convergence across Sectors on Industrial Structural Transformation and Aggregate Productivity of Provinces in China

中国各省经济在经历快速增长的同时,部门之间的劳动生产率差距也在不断扩大,而且总生产率增长越慢的地区,差距越大。通过构建含有农业劳动力流动受阻因子的三部门一般均衡模型,研究部门间生产率差距及差距缩小对各省产业结构和总生产率的影响。结果显示,部门生产率增长及其模式所产生的收入效应和替代效应能较好地解释各省市产业结构的转型过程,低增长省份较低的农业和服务业生产率增长率以及较高的农产品和服务业需求收入弹性共同解释了这些地区农业劳动力流出缓慢且主要进入服务业的原因。部门间生产率收敛,尤其是服务业生产率提高,将会促使农业劳动力更多地流入工业部门并大幅提高各省总生产率增速,从而消除一些省份的增长减速,并使低增长省份保持快速增长。因此,保持经济稳定增长的关键是将农业和服务业的生产率提高到当前发展阶段应有的水平。另外,每个省份部门间生产率的收敛也有助于大幅度减少省际经济增长的差异。

While China s provinces undergo rapid economic growth,productivity gaps between sectors in each province is expanding.Provinces with slower growth of total productivity tend to have greater gaps.Through extending three-sector general equilibrium model,this paper investigates influences of sectoral labor productivity gaps and their changes on structural transformation and aggregate productivity across provinces.The study shows that income effect and substitution effect of sectoral productivity growth and its model explain the process of industrial structural transformation.Lowerproductivity growth rate and higher income elasticities of agricultural and service industries in low-growthprovincestogether explain why the outflow of agricultural labor force in these regions is slow and mainly enters the service sector.The productivity convergence across sectors,especially the productivity improvement in services,will lead to more agricultural labor flow into the industry and a significant increase in the aggregate productivity growth of all provinces,which will help to eliminate almost all experiences of slowdown and decline in relative aggregate productivity across provinces.Therefore,the key to sustain steady economic growth is to increase productivity of agriculture and services to the level it should be at present.Productivity convergence across sectors within each province also significantly reduces economic growth disparity across provinces.