中国制造业碳排放的时空变化与影响因素分析

Time and Space Changes of China's Manufacturing Carbon Emission and Influencing Factors

2005—2015年间,中国制造业碳排放不仅总量增长迅速,而且地区间存在明显差异。利用中国30个省份制造业的碳排放数据,基于Theil指数及空间自相关刻画其空间分布特征,利用空间面板计量模型分析其影响因素。结果表明:(1)制造业碳排放空间Theil指数逐渐增大,区域内和区域间差异均表现出一致的增长趋势,其中东部地区内部差异最大。(2)制造业碳排放呈现显著的空间相关性,热点区域在样本期间有所增长,"高—高"或"低—低"相邻的省份区域较为显著,尤其是在东部地区。(3)地区经济水平、制造业的生产和出口活动、能耗强度、煤炭消费比重、煤炭资源禀赋不仅显著促进本地区制造业碳排放,也会对相邻省份产生显著影响;而对外贸易和引进外资则有助于地方制造业的碳减排,但对相邻地区的影响存在差异。

From 2005 to 2015,China s manufacturing total carbon emission not only increased greatly but also showedsignificant regional differences.Based on China s 30 provincial manufacturing carbon emission data,using Theil Index,Spatial auto-correlation test and spatial panel model,this paper investigates time and space changes of carbon emissions in China s manufacturing industry and influencing factors.The results show that:(1)Theil Index of manufacturing carbon emission gradually increases,and the differences within and between regions all go up,among which the difference within eastern regions is the largest.(2)Manufacturing carbon emission shows a significant spatial correlations,and the hot spots regions have grown during the sample period.Regions of high carbon emission is notably near to regions of high carbon emission,and regions of low carbon emission is significantly near to regions of low carbon emission,which is quite common in eastern China.(3)Regional economic development,manufacturing production and export,energy intensity,proportion of coal consumption,and coal resource endowment are the five factors which greatly promote both local and neighbor provinces manufacturing carbon emission.Foreign trade and investment decrease local manufacturing carbon emission,but gives different impacts on neighbors manufacturing carbon emission.