中国农村地区收入代际流动性估计——基于三省六县千户调查

Estimation of Intergenerational Mobility of Rural Areas in China: Based on Thousands of Household Surveys in Three Provinces and Six Counties

基于2009—2010年浙江、安徽和陕西三省六县的农村千户调查数据,利用OLS和分位数回归,就中国当前农村地区父辈与子辈之间的代际收入流动性进行实证研究。研究结果显示,当前中国农村代际收入弹性约为0.5,在控制了地区等变量后,代际收入流动性降低至0.33。与国外已有研究相比,当前中国代际流动性偏低。此外,研究发现中国农村地区代际流动存在三种异质性:一是性别异质,父-子代际流动性要显著高于父-女的代际流动性;二是地区异质,农村地区存在地区间收入代际流动的异质性,东部地区收入代际流动性最强,西部次之,中部最弱;三是家庭收入异质,农村地区不同收入家庭也存在异质性,低收入家庭代际流动性相对较弱,高收入家庭代际流动性相对较强。这表明,今后政策的制定应当有所侧重,对于贫困地区、中西部落后地区以及女性后代应当给予一定的财政帮助,以期提升其自身乃至其后代的经济社会地位。

Based on the rural household survey data of six counties in Zhejiang,Anhui and Shaanxi provinces from 2009 to 2010,using ols and quantile regression,an empirical study was conducted on the inter-generational income mobility between the parents and the generations in China's current rural areas.The results show that the current inter-generational income elasticity of China's rural areas is about 0.5.After controlling the regional variables,the inter-generational income mobility is reduced to 0.33.Compared with foreign studies,the current inter-generational mobility is low.In addition,there are three heterogeneity in the study of inter-generational mobility in rural areas of China.First,gender heterogeneity,father-son inter-generational mobility is significantly higher than that of father-daughter inter-generational mobility.Second,the region is heterogeneous.There is heterogeneity in inter-generational income between regions in rural areas.Inter-generational mobility is the strongest in the eastern region,followed by the western region and the weakest in the central region.Third,household income is heterogeneous.Different income families in rural areas also have heterogeneity.The inter-generational mobility of low-income families is relatively weak,and the inter-generational mobility of high-income families is relatively strong.This implies that the formulation of policies should be focused to poor areas,backward areas in the central and western regions,and future generations of women,with a view to improving the economic and social status of themselves and their descendants in the future.