我国城镇住房制度变迁对宏观经济的影响——兼论政府对房地产市场的调控与效果

The Impact of the Changes of Urban Housing System on Macro-economy Since the Reform and Opening-up in China

1978年以来,中国城镇住房制度改革在政府和市场双重作用下大致经历了酝酿、开启、深化、调控和长效机制建立五个阶段,而房价作为住房制度变迁的载体,在住房制度变迁的五个阶段中发挥不同程度的传导作用。房价通过财富效应和抵押效应引起宏观经济的波动,而政府的短期调控加速或者延缓了这一过程。通过梳理1998~2018年中央对住房市场进行调控的主要政策,并重点分析本轮的住房市场调控效果,得出以下三点结论和建议:(1)房地产对经济的拉动作用逐步缩小,住房制度变迁重在多种制度的契合;(2)中央和地方政府的目标一致有利于住房制度的稳定实施和经济的发展;(3)短期调控应与政府调控房地产市场的"长效机制"相结合。

Since 1978,the reform and changes of China' s urban housing system have roughly gone through five stages: brewing,opening,deepening,regulating and establishing a long-term mechanism under the dual role of government and market.As the carrier of housing system changes,house price plays a role of conduction in five stages of housing system changes.The effect of housing prices on consumption and investment through them echanism of wealth effect and mortgage effect has led to macroeconomic fluctuations,and short-term government regulation has accelerated or curtailed this process.Review on the main documents and policy orientation of the central government's control over the housing market from 1998 to 2018,the author analyses the housing market regulation effect of this round,and draws the following three conclusions and suggestions:(1)The housing price and the macro-economic fluctuation are basically the same,the deepening of housing system reform will affect the economic development;( 2)The aim of the central and local governments is consistent and conducive to the stable implementation of the housing system and the development of the economy;(3)The combination of short-term regulation and government regulation of real estate's long-term mechanism.