基于本体的PPP项目风险案例推理

Case-based Reasoning of PPP Project Risk Based on Ontology

PPP项目结构多样,生命周期长的特点导致其风险类型更为复杂,阶段性也更强。当PPP项目风险发生时,如何进行风险责任的认定以及采取何种措施来对PPP项目风险加以控制是目前风险管理的一大难点。针对上述问题,本文提出了采用基于本体的方法对PPP项目历史案例的风险信息进行表示和存储,并建立PPP项目风险案例库。在此基础上运用基于本体的概念语义相似度的计算方法进行案例推理。当新建项目发生风险时,使用该方法能够快速地推理出与在建项目风险情况最接近的一个或多个案例,并查找出该案例的风险历史处理措施和风险责任的承担情况,为项目管理者的决策提供参考。

The multiple modes and long life cycle of PPP project result in the diversity of risk mode and multiple phases.When risk occurs in PPP projects,one major difficulty in risk management is to confirm responsibility and take practical measure to control risk of PPP project.For the above problems,this essay proposes an ontology-based method to present and store risk information of historical cases in PPP project,establishing a PPP project risk cases library.On this base,it employs ontology-based calculation of semantic concept similarity for case deduction.When risk occurs in a new project,this method can quickly deduce the closest cases with the new project in risk situation.Moreover,it could also search for risk treatment and risk responsibility,so as to provide reference for the decision of project manager.