基于风险分担的城中村改造项目收益分配模型

Income Distribution Model Based on Risk-sharingin Urban Village Reconstruction Project

为解决城中村改造项目参与主体间利益分配不均而确定合理的分配比例,本文首先对城中村改造项目中参与主体所面临的风险和其是否参与项目的策略行为进行博弈分析;其次,假设在各参与方风险中性条件下,利用Shapley值法对三方合作的改造模式进行利益初次分配,并确定了各参与方可转移收益分配比例;然后,基于风险分担理论,应用C-OWA算子赋权的灰色聚类风险评价模型,找出各参与方可转移利益修正系数;最后,将该模式应用于某城中村改造项目,项目中政府、村民、开发商三方的可转移收益分配比例为:2∶8∶8x(0.81≤x≤1),风险分担修正系数分别为:0.412∶0.232∶0.356,修正后的收益分配比例范围为:2∶4.5∶6~2∶4.5∶7,而实际三方的收益分配比例为:2∶7∶7。结果表明:政府实际经济收益偏低,风险分担较大;村民风险分担最小,经济收益偏高;开发商的风险分担和经济收益都相对合理。

To determine the reasonable proportion of distribution to solve the unequal distribution of interests among the participants of urban villages reconstruction projects.Firstly,this paper makes a game analysis on the risks faced by the main participants in the urban village reconstruction project and the strategic behaviors of whether to participate in the project.Secondly,it is assumed that each participant is risk-neutral,Shapley value method is used to conduct the initial distribution of benefits in the transformation mode of tripartite cooperation,and the distribution proportion of profits transferred by each participant is determined.Then,based on the risk sharing theory,the grey clustering risk evaluation model of OWA operator is applied to find out the correction coefficient of the transferable interests of each participant.Finally,this model is applied to a village reconstruction project.The paper concludes that the transferable income distribution proportion of the government,villagers and developers in this project is: 2 ∶ 8 ∶ 8 x (0.81≤ x ≤1),and the correction coefficient of risk sharing is: 0.412 ∶ 0.232 ∶ 0.356 respectively.The results show that the actual economic benefits of the government are low and the risk sharing is high.The villagers share the least risk and have high economic benefits.The risk-sharing and economic benefits of developers are relatively reasonable.