土地储备影响因素分析及其数量预测方法研究

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Land Reserve and Research on Scientific Forecast Method of Land Reserve Quantity

本文主要对土地储备的影响因素进行详细分析,注意在土地储备规划编制过程中的关键因素。对土地储备量预测方法进行理论研究,比较分析土地储备量预测几种方法,并剖析方法的实质。根据已往六年来吉首市相关土地储备数据,对2017-2019年三年年平均土地储备供应量进行预测计算。发现趋势分析预测方法与灰色模型方法预测数值具有较高的吻合度。因此,这两种预测方法比较适用于土地储备总量预测,值得推广应用。

This paper mainly analyzes the influencing factors of land reserve and pays attention to these key factors in the process of preparing land reserve planning.This paper makes a theoretical study on the forecast of land reserve quantity, compares and analyzes the methods of land reserve quantity forecast, and analyzes its essence.According to the relevant land reserve data of Jishou city, the average annual land reserve supply in the three years from 2017 to 2019 is predicted and calculated.The results show that the trend analysis method and the grey model method have a good agreement.Therefore, it shows that these two prediction methods are reasonable and worthy of promotion and application.