自我预测中乐观倾向的研究进展

Advances of optimistic tendency of self-prediction

自我预测是指个体对自己未来行为做出预测的心理过程。在大多数情况下自我预测具有不同程度的乐观倾向,并且具有乐观偏差、规划谬误及过度自信三类表现。影响自我预测中乐观倾向的因素有个体因素和情境因素,其心理机制包括非动机机制(聚焦主义理论、自我中心主义理论)及动机机制。未来研究需要注意规范抽样,选用合适的量表、范式,谨防统计假象的出现,同时运用功能性磁共振成像技术(functional magneticresonance imaging,fMRI)、事件相关电位(event-related potentials,ERP)等技术揭示乐观倾向的认知神经机制。

Self-prediction refers to a psychological process of predicting future behavior by oneself.A large number of studies have shown that self-prediction has varying degrees of optimistic tendency in most cases.There are three main types of self-prediction optimistic tendency:optimism bias,planning fallacy,and overconfidence.Their influencing factors can be divided into two categories:individual factors and situational factors.The mechanism of optimistic tendency includes nonmotivation mechanism(focalism,egocentrism)and motivation mechanism.Future researches need to pay attention to the research of cognitive neural mechanism of optimistic tendency using functional magnetic resonance imaging(fMRI)and event-related potentials(ERP).When conducting research,researchers should focus on the standards of sampling,and choose the appropriate scale and paradigm to guard against the statistical illusion.