连片特困地区物流业发展的减贫效应测度

Estimate of poverty reduction effects by the logistics industry development in the contiguous poverty-stricken areas

为科学测度连片特困地区物流业发展的减贫效应,基于熵权-TOPISIS模型对贫困程度进行评估,并以综合贫困指数为被解释变量,表征物流业发展水平的6个指标(货物周转量、物流业增加值、公路网密度、规模以上工业产值、社会消费零售总额和货物平均运距)为解释变量,引入空间杜宾模型(SDM)计量县域尺度下物流业发展对区域减贫的直接影响和空间溢出效应。研究表明:物流业增加值、路网密度和规模以上工业产值对区域减贫具有显著的直接效应,物流业增加值每增加108元,本县(区)的综合贫困指数将降低0.060;货物周转量、公路网密度和规模以上工业产值对区域减贫的间接(空间溢出)作用明显,本县(区)货物周转量每增加108 t·km^-1,毗邻县(区)的综合贫困指数将降低0.020。均衡物流产业的空间分布、完善物流基础设施和调动贫困县(区)物流需求,是发挥物流减贫效应的有效措施。

In order to estimate scientifically the poverty reduction effects by the logistics industry development in the contiguous poverty-stricken areas,the entropy weight method(EWM)-TOPISIS Model is utilized to estimate the poverty intensity.Taking the comprehensive poverty index(CPI) as the explained variable and six indicators which represent the development of logistics industry and include the tonnage mileage(TM),added value of logistics industry(AVLI),highway network density(HND),value of gross out by the industry above designated size(VGO),total volume of retail sales of social consumption(TVRS),and average freight distance of goods(AFD) as the explanatory variables,the Spatial Dubin Model(SDM) is introduced to calculate the direct influence and spatial spillover effects on regional poverty reduction by the logistics industry development at the county scale.The findings indicated that: firstly,the AVLI,HND and VGO had prominent direct effects on regional poverty reduction,and the increase of AVLI by 10 million Yuan in a county(or district) would bring down its CPI by 0.060;secondly,the TM,HND and VGO had obvious indirect(spatial spillover) effects on regional poverty reduction,and the increase of the TM by 10 million ton·kilometers in a county(or district) will bring down the CPIs of its adjacent counties(or districts) by 0.020.Such measures as balancing the spatial distribution of logistics industry,improving logistics infrastructure and mobilizing the logistics demand in the poverty-stricken counties(districts) are the effective measures to exert the poverty reduction effect by logistics development.