经济增长、能源强度与大气污染的关系研究

Analysis of the Relationship between Economic Growth, Energy Intensity and Air Pollution

以扩展的环境库兹涅茨模型(EKC)和空间计量经济学模型为基础,结合中国大陆地区2000~2016年30个省市的面板数据,分析了大气污染的空间相关性及影响因素。结果表明,历年各地区的大气污染之间存在着明显的空间相关性和溢出效应;经济增长、能源强度对中国污染气体排放起促增效应,产业结构的调整对大气污染产生了积极的减排效应,而政府管制对大气污染的影响甚微。同时运用门限回归和分位数回归的方法印证了能源强度与大气污染呈"倒N型"特征。最后结合EKC曲线的特征和结论证明了北京、上海、天津三个城市已率先越过拐点并保持相对稳定,且环境质量改善比较明显。部分东南部省份已经越过EKC曲线的拐点,但大气质量改善压力仍然巨大。多数中部和西部省份处于峰值阶段,经济增长所带来的大气污染问题比较严峻。因此建议根据各地区在EKC曲线的不同位置制定差异化政策,以同时兼顾经济增长和环境改善双重问题的解决。

Based on the extended environmental Kuznets model(EKC) and spatial econometric model, combined with the panel data of 30 regions in China from 2000 to 2016, this paper analyzes the spatial correlation and influencing factors of regional environmental pollution. The results show that there is obvious spatial correlation and spillover effect between environmental pollution;Economic growth and energy intensity have contributed to China’s pollution gas emissions. The adjustment of industrial structure have produced positive effects on air pollution, and government regulation has little impact on reducing air pollution. At the same time, the use of threshold regression and quantile regression method proves that energy intensity and air pollution are inverted N. Finally, combining the characteristics and conclusions of the EKC curve, it is proved that the three cities of Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin have taken the lead in crossing the inflection point and remained relatively stable, the environmental quality improvement is obvious. Some southeastern provinces have crossed the inflection point of the EKC curve, but the pressure for improving air quality is still huge. Most central and western provinces are at the peak stage, and the air pollution problems caused by economic growth are more serious. Therefore, it is recommended to formulate a differentiation policy based on the different locations of the EKC curve in each region, so as to take into account the dual problems of economic growth and environmental improvement.