基于HALT试验的运行智能电能表剩余寿命预测方法研究

Study on the residual life prediction of smart meters for operation by HALT test

目前,国内运行智能电能表数量庞大,约为5.5亿只。运行中智能电能表的计量准确性直接关系着电网公司和用户的切身利益。由于智能电能表运行环境千差万别,运行状态完全不一致,实际寿命不一致,因此,需要对智能电能表的实际状态进行评估,开展寿命预测研究,以便于更好地进行质量管控。本文结合环境特征对于误差的影响分析,利用聚类方法划分环境区域,在不同区域内对于运行一年的智能电能表进行抽样,建立了智能电能表Weibull剩余寿命分布模型。同时,基于HALT加速试验验证了提出的剩余寿命预测模型的可行性,该方法的提出将为制定智能电能表的轮换政策提供技术支持。

At present,the numbers of the smart meters for operation is very large,about 550 million.The accuracy of smart meters for operation is closely related to the e vital interests of grid companies and the users.Due to the difference of the operation environment of smart meters,the real life of the smart meter is a big difference,so it is need to evaluate the real status of the smart meter and predict the rest of the life.In this paper,analysing the influence of the environment on the error characteristics,dividing the regions on account of the clustering method,the smart meters for operation more than one year have been selected by stratified sampling method,and a sampling life tolerance model is established.At the same time,it is verified that the proposed life prediction model is feasibility,based on HALT accelerated test,and it will provide technical support for the formulation of the rotation policy of smart meters.