区分待预测日的城市电网短期负荷预测方法研究

Study on short-term load forecasting method for urban power grid based on day to be predicted

为了解决城市配电网电力负荷因规律复杂而难以有效预测的问题,本文提出了一种区分待预测日的城市电网短期负荷预测方法,根据待预测日的特征信息从历史负荷数据集中识别出相似日,建立9个基本负荷预测模型,将其负荷预测结果进行组合并比较,选择出待预测日最优组合模型的负荷预测值。为了验证这一方法的有效性,选取了6个专变用户对其未来200多天的负荷进行预测分析,其结果表明该方法具有较高的预测精度和更强的适应能力。

In order to solve the problem that the power distribution of urban distribution network is difficult to predict effectively due to the complicated rules,a short-term load forecasting method is proposed for urban power grid that distinguishes the day to be predicted,and identifies the historical load data set according to the characteristic information of the day to be predicted.On the similar day,nine basic load forecasting models are established,and their load forecasting results are combined and compared,and the load forecasting value of the optimal combined model to be predicted is selected.In order to verify the effectiveness of this method,six special-purpose users were selected to predict the load of the next 200 days.The results show that the method has higher prediction accuracy and stronger adaptability.