耦合激励机制下多灾种综合风险评估方法

Multi-hazard comprehensive risk assessment based on coupling incentive mechanism

为解决区域多灾种综合风险评估中忽略多灾种间相互作用、对城市用地规划指导缺乏的问题,建立基于耦合激励机制的多灾种综合风险评估模型。以石家庄中心城区为研究对象,首先,利用地理信息系统(GIS)获取中心城区的地质、地震、火灾、洪水、内涝等典型灾害信息;然后,制定各单灾种之间的空间耦合激励规则;最后,利用有序分位加权集结算子评价多灾种的综合风险。结果表明:极高、高、中等、低、极低危险区的面积分别占26%、19%、31%、21%、3%;综合灾害危险性高的区域主要集中在滹沱河沿岸、重大危险源周边及石家庄断裂带区域,呈集群式分布特点;所得研究结果与实际情况高度吻合,激励模型能精确融合各灾种信息并克服众多不确定性问题,有效实现快速、灵活化的城市综合灾害风险的评估。

In order to solve the problems of neglecting the interaction between multiple disasters and lacking guidance for urban land use planning in regional comprehensive risk assessment of multiple disasters, a comprehensive risk assessment model was built for multiple disasters based on coupling incentive mechanism. The central area of Shijiazhuang city was taken as the research object. Firstly, GIS was used to obtain typical disaster information such as geology, earthquake, fire, flood, and waterlogging. Then, the spatial coupling incentive rules between disasters were constructed. Finally, the integrated risk assessment of multi-hazards was carried out by using the ordered weighted set of settlements. The results show that the areas of extremely high, high, medium, low and extremely low risk areas account for 26%, 19%, 31%, 21% and 3% respectively. Among them, the areas with high comprehensive disaster risks are mainly concentrated along Hutuo River, the periphery of major hazard sources and Shijiazhuang fault zone, which are distributed in clusters. The obtained research results are highly consistent with the actual situation,indicating that the incentive model can accurately integrate various disaster information and overcome many uncertain problems, thus effectively realizing rapid and flexible comprehensive disaster risk assessment for cities.