基于设定地震群体建筑物震害预测方法研究

Study on earthquake damage prediction method of group buildings based on scenario earthquake

在研究群体建筑震害预测方法的基础上提出基于设定地震的群体建筑震害预测方法。以保定市为例,依据中弱活动断层也可能发生中等强度破坏性地震的理论基础,计算弱活动断层潜在最大震级,统计华北地区破坏性地震拟合出震级-震中烈度关系,选择合适的烈度衰减关系得到保定市设定地震的地震影响场,依据地震影响场将城市分区并且给出不同分区内不同类型建筑物的震害矩阵,最后利用Arc-GIS强大的制图及图像显示功能,根据系统分析所得的实验区震害指数计算结果,绘制了实验区二维震害预测图。结果表明基于设定地震的群体建筑震害预测方法提高了震害预测的精度,使得预测结果更加符合实际情况。

In this paper,based on the study of earthquake damage prediction method of group buildings,a prediction method of earthquake damage of group buildings based on earthquake setting is put forward.Taking Baoding city as an example,the theoretical basis of medium-intensity destructive earthquakes is calculated based on the weakly active faults,and the potential maximum magnitude of the weak active faults is stdied.The destructive earthquakes in the North China are fitted to the magnitude-epicenter intensity relationship,the seismic impact field of Baoding city is obtained,and the seismic damage field of different types of buildings is given according to the earthquake impact field.Finally,using Arc-GIS powerful mapping and image display function,according to the system analysis of the experimental area earthquake damage index calculation results,the damage distribution of the building are derived.The results show that the seismic damage forecasting method based on the earthquake is improved,and the prediction result is more realistic than the actual situation.