基于SVAR天津市公共交通与经济发展关系的实证研究

Empirical research on relationship of Tianjin urban public transport and economic development based on SVAR

利用SVAR模型探析天津市城市公共交通与经济发展关系。研究结果显示:天津市公共交通发展与经济发展存在长期稳定的均衡关系,经济发展能够Granger引起公共交通发展的变动,并且这种关系是单向的;公共交通发展与经济发展相互之间的时滞特征不同,公共交通发展的结构冲击在第20年时,经济发展的滞后冲击影响效应达到最大值;经济发展的结构冲击在第7年时,公共交通的滞后冲击影响效应达到最大值。

The paper analyzes the relationships between Tianjin urban public transport and economic development.The results show that,there is long-term stable equilibrium relatioship between Tianjin urban pubilc transport and economic development. Economic development is the Granger cause for changes in the pubic transport development, and this relationship is one-way. Public transport development and economic development have different delay characteristics. When the structure of the public transport development impact is 20, economic development lag reaches the maximum impact. When the structure of the economic development impact is 7, the lag effect of public transport reaches the maximum impact.