基于主成分回归法京津冀地区雾霾影响因素分析

Analysis of Influencing Factors of Haze in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

2013年以来,我国雾霾频发,成为可持续发展中面临的一个突出问题。针对我国城市雾霾污染治理问题,首先引入了城市雾霾指数的概念,利用主成分综合评价法构建京津冀地区的雾霾指数,以反映其空气污染程度;然后在此基础上,选择京津冀地区五个雾霾影响因素利用主成分回归法定量分析影响雾霾的主要因素,得出人均机动车拥有量以及建成区绿化覆盖率为影响雾霾天气的主要因素,其次是环境污染治理投资及煤炭消费量的结论;最后基于分析结果提出积极发展低碳交通,构建低碳交通体系、调整城市能源结构、实施重污染天气应急预案、提高绿色覆盖率等治理建议。

Since 2013, frequent occurrence of haze in China has become a prominent problem in sustainable development. Aiming at the problem of urban haze pollution control in China, the concept of urban haze index was firstly introduced. The haze index of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was constructed by using the principal component comprehensive evaluation method to reflect the degree of air pollution. Then on this basis, five haze influencing factors in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were selected and the main factors affecting haze were quantitatively analyzed using principal component regression method. It was concluded that per capita motor vehicle ownership and green coverage rate of built-up areas were the main factors affecting haze weather, followed by investment in environmental pollution control and coal consumption. Finally, based on the analysis results, the paper puts forward some Suggestions on the development of low-carbon transportation, construction of low-carbon transportation system, adjustment of urban energy structure, implementation of heavy pollution weather emergency plan and improvement of green coverage rate.