人口年龄结构演变对居民消费的影响:理论机理与实证检验

The impact of the evolution of population age structure on resident consumption: theoretical mechanism and empirical test

以1993—2014年的时间序列数据为基础,通过引入标准消费人概念来建立消费函数,分析人口年龄结构变动对居民消费的影响,借助灰色关联理论分析人口年龄结构与消费结构的关联度。研究发现,人口老龄化趋势会对中国居民的消费需求产生一定的抑制作用,且不同年龄组对不同消费项目的需求存在较大差距。因此,在经济增长方式转型的过程中,必须考虑人口年龄结构变化为经济社会发展所带来的巨大挑战。

Based on the time series data from 1993 to 2014,the consumption function is established by introducing the concept of standard consumer to analyze the impact of population age structure change on residents'consumption,and the correlation degree between population age structure a nd consumption structure with t he g rey correlation t heory.T he result shows that the aging trend of population will have a certain inhibitory effect on the consumption demand of Chinese residents,and there is a big gap in the demand for different consumption items among different age groups.Therefore,in the process of the transformation of economic growth mode,we must take into consideration the huge challenge brought by the changes of population age structure for economic and social development.