基于SEIR传染病模型的高碳产业低碳转型动力提升策略

Promotion Strategy of High-Carbon Industry’s Low-Carbon Transformation Power Based on SEIR Model

针对高碳产业低碳转型动力提升策略问题,借用传染病模型的分析思路,构建高碳产业低碳技术扩散SEIR模型;在此基础上采用AnyLogic软件构建高碳产业低碳技术扩散的系统动力学模型并进行系统仿真。仿真结果显示,随着参数的变化,高碳产业低碳技术扩散的平衡点和活跃程度也会发生变化:当高碳产业低碳技术扩散基本再生数大于1时,一旦有新的低碳技术扩散源,低碳技术将在企业之间不断扩散,并最终进入某一个平衡状态;当基本再生数小于1时,无论刚开始有多少企业进行低碳技术传播,系统最终将进入无低碳技术扩散的平衡状态。

In view of the problem of promotion strategy of high-carbon industry's low-carbon transformation power, this paper uses the epidemic model to analyze the high-carbon industry's low-carbon technology diffusion SEIR model. On this basis, the paper uses the software AnyLogic to construct the system dynamics model of high-carbon industry's low-carbon technology diffusion and carry on the system simulation. The simulation results show that, with the change of parameters, the diffusion equilibrium point and the active degree of high-carbon industry's low-carbon technology diffusion will also change: when the basic regeneration num ber of high-carbon industry's low-carbon technology diffusion is more than one, low carbon technology will continue to spread among enterprises once there is a new low carbon technology diffusion source and finally enter a certain equilibrium state;when the basic regeneration number is less than one, the system will eventually enter a state of equilibrium w ithout the diffusion of low-carbon technologies no matter how many enterprises begin to spread low-carbon technologies.