摘要
针对高碳产业低碳转型动力提升策略问题,借用传染病模型的分析思路,构建高碳产业低碳技术扩散SEIR模型;在此基础上采用AnyLogic软件构建高碳产业低碳技术扩散的系统动力学模型并进行系统仿真。仿真结果显示,随着参数的变化,高碳产业低碳技术扩散的平衡点和活跃程度也会发生变化:当高碳产业低碳技术扩散基本再生数大于1时,一旦有新的低碳技术扩散源,低碳技术将在企业之间不断扩散,并最终进入某一个平衡状态;当基本再生数小于1时,无论刚开始有多少企业进行低碳技术传播,系统最终将进入无低碳技术扩散的平衡状态。
In view of the problem of promotion strategy of high-carbon industry's low-carbon transformation power, this paper uses the epidemic model to analyze the high-carbon industry's low-carbon technology diffusion SEIR model. On this basis, the paper uses the software AnyLogic to construct the system dynamics model of high-carbon industry's low-carbon technology diffusion and carry on the system simulation. The simulation results show that, with the change of parameters, the diffusion equilibrium point and the active degree of high-carbon industry's low-carbon technology diffusion will also change: when the basic regeneration num ber of high-carbon industry's low-carbon technology diffusion is more than one, low carbon technology will continue to spread among enterprises once there is a new low carbon technology diffusion source and finally enter a certain equilibrium state;when the basic regeneration number is less than one, the system will eventually enter a state of equilibrium w ithout the diffusion of low-carbon technologies no matter how many enterprises begin to spread low-carbon technologies.
作者
杨双萍
王玲玲
张济建
Yang Shuangping;Wang Lingling;Zhang Jijian(School of Finance and Economics,Jiangsu University,Zhenjiang 212013,China)
出处
《科技管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第11期261-268,共8页
Science and Technology Management Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“‘技术-制度’双重解锁视角下高碳产业低碳转型动力机制及引导策略研究”(71673117)
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“环保公正视角下区域环保投入机制及联动投入策略研究”(71503105)
江苏大学科研项目“中国高碳产业低碳转型动力研究”(17C110)
关键词
SEIR模型
低碳技术扩散
基本再生数
平衡状态
SEIR model
low-carbon technology diffusion
basic regeneration number
equilibrium state