中国能源价格市场化对高、低能耗行业出口贸易的差异化影响

Differentiation Impact from China’s Energy Price Marketization on the Export of Chinese High/Low Energy Consumption Industries

构建了具有中国能源价格特征的一般均衡(CGE)模型。首先将工业行业依据能源消耗密度分类为高能耗行业和低能耗行业两大类;然后模拟设计了在两种不同技术水平条件下的两种能源价格市场化方案;最后测算4种情境下能源价格波动可能对中国高、低能耗工业行业出口的差异化影响。结果发现:中国能源价格波动对高能耗工业行业出口的影响幅度大于对低能耗工业行业的影响;高技术进步水平下,中国能源价格市场化对高、低能耗工业行业出口的影响比现有技术水平下的影响要小。

A computable general equilibrum(CGE)model with Chinese energy price character is constructed.First,the industry is classified into high energy consumption industry and low energy consumption industry based on the energy consumption density.Based on the formation characteristics of China’s energy prices,the energy price is assumed to be external in the model.The research simulates two ways of energy price marketization schemes with two different technology situations.Under these four scenarios,the study calculates the different impact of energy price volatility on China’s high and low energy consumption industries.The study concludes that the impact of upward or downward fluctuations in China’s energy prices on the export of high energy consumption industries is greater than its impact on low energy consumption industries regardless of the level of technology.After the progress of technology,the impact of China’s energy price fluctuations on the export of high or low energy consumption industries is smaller than the situation of current technology situation.Finally,the study puts forward policy recommendations to improve the export competitiveness of China’s high and low energy consumption industrial industries based on the outcome of research from the perspective of optimizing the export structure and upgrading the industry’s energy-saving technologies.