基于SWAT模型的气候变化下水文响应分析——以福建省长汀县朱溪小流域为例

Analysis on the Hydrological Response under the Climate Changes based on the SWAT Model——Case Study in Zhuxi Small Watershed of Changting County of Fujian Province

本文以长汀县河田地区朱溪小流域为研究区,基于多年的气象、水文数据及高程数据模型、土地利用图、土壤类型图等,构建朱溪小流域SWAT模型。本文在假设下垫面条件不变的情况下应用假定气候情景法,通过改变日最高、最低气温值和逐日降雨量值构建15种不同的气候条件情景定量模拟分析气候变化对朱溪小流域径流的影响。研究结果表明:降水和温度的变化共同影响着朱溪小流域的产流过程,朱溪小流域的径流量与降雨量呈现正相关关系,与气温呈现负相关关系;相对于温度变化对朱溪小流域径流的影响,降雨量对于研究区径流量的影响更大。

Taking the Zhuxi small watershed at Hetian Township of Changting County as the study area,it was established the Zhuxi small watershed SWAT model based on the years meteorological and hydrological data,the elevation data model,land use map and soil type map,etc.With the assumption of the unchanged underlying surface conditions,it was applied the hypothetical climate scenario method in the quantitative simulation analysis on the impact of change of climate to the runoff in the Zhuxi small watershed based on the development of 15 different climate condition circumstance through the changing of the daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily rainfall.The result shows that,the changes of the rainfall the temperature jointly influence the runoff generation process of Zhuxi small watershed.The runoff in Zhuxi small watershed appears the positive correlation with rainfall,while the negative correlation with temperature.Compared with the impact of temperature variation on the runoff,the rainfall has greater impact on the runoff in Zhuxi small watershed.