1988—2017年韶山人体舒适度变化特征

The variation characteristics of human comfort index in Shaoshan from 1988 to 2017

为向湖南省韶山红色旅游资源利用提供值得参考的科学依据,选取韶山1988—2017年逐日气象数据进行分析,通过计算保证率、气候倾向率并利用Mann-Kendall检验方法进行趋势检验和突变检测分析当地人体舒适度指数变化特征。结果表明,韶山整体呈现舒适特征,年平均舒适时间最多,冷不舒适时间次之,热不舒适时间最少,且寒冷和炎热等级的时间极少,无酷热情况出现;但近30年来年平均人体舒适度指数显著上升,虽然年舒适时间变化不大且寒冷和炎热等级时间均呈减少趋势,但冷不舒适时间显著降低,相应时段结束日期显著提前,同时热不舒适时间显著增加,相应时段的结束时间显著延后,突变检测进一步表明,进入21世纪的前10年,冷、热不舒适程度的这种变化趋势更加显著。

In order to provide scientific basis for the utilization of red tourism resources in Shaoshan, Hunan Province, daily meteorological data from 1988 to 2017 were selected to analyze the variation characteristics of local human comfort index by calculating the guaranteed rate, climatic tendency rate and trend testing and mutation detection of Mann-Kendall test. The results showed that Shaoshan presented comfortable characteristics as a whole, the maximum number was the annual average comfortable days, the second was the cold uncomfortable days, the minimum number was the thermal uncomfortable days, and the days of the cold and hot grades were very few, no extremely hot conditions. However, in the past 30 years, the annual average human comfort index had increased significantly, although the days of annual comfortable day changed little and the number of cold and hot grades days showed a decreasing trend, but the number of cold uncomfortable days decreased significantly, the end date of the corresponding period was significantly ahead of schedule, and the number of thermal uncomfortable days increased significantly, and the end date of the corresponding period was significantly delayed. The mutation detection further showed that in the first ten years of the 21st century, the trend of change of cold and hot discomfort condition was more significant.